Zander Manning's UMass-BC breakdown and prediction

MassVarsity offered its preview and prediction of the UMass-Boston College game for its Friday pick 'em, but we had Zander Manning give another in-depth take. Here is his analysis and prediction.

By Zander Manning

@ZMSportsReport

For the third time since moving to the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) and first since 2016, UMass and Boston College football will face off against each other in the “Battle of the Bay State."

In the last meeting, the Eagles defeated the Minutemen 26-7 at Gillette Stadium. Following that game, the two schools devised a plan to play a home-and-home series starting in 2018 and ending in 2022, until further games are scheduled.

BC leads the all-time series 21-5, but UMass is looking for its first victory in 40 years (that’s right, 1978).

Here’s what both teams need to do to win.

UMass wins if . . .

Andrew Ford stays on his feet

One of UMass’ biggest problems in 2017 was protection for its quarterback, senior Andrew Ford. Ford was knocked down or sacked at least three times each game last season and it is essential that the offensive line gives him the time he needs to complete his motions.

Last season, Ford played in 11 games completing 223-of-353 passes (63.2 percent) for 22 touchdowns. He was also only intercepted four times all season.

In the season opener against Duquesne, Ford completed 13-of-19 passes (68.4 percent) for two touchdowns, while rushing three times for a total of 5 yards. 

Expect Ford to look for his favorite target, senior wide receiver Andy Isabella, either along the sidelines or down the middle.

Andy Isabella plays . . . well . . . like himself

Isabella is without a doubt Ford’s favorite target on the field and without him on the field, UMass would not stand a chance against a BC team that narrowly missed a bowl victory in 2017. 

Isabella is almost like the Minutemen’s version of Julian Edelman, not in the sense that he has been suspended, but in terms of versatility. 

In the season opener, Isabella caught five passes for 131 yards and two touchdowns, including a 60-yard pass that saw him wide open by the right hashmarks. The senior also rushed once for 14 yards. This is not something that the Minutemen will do often, but will keep it in their back pocket.

Marquis Young stays hot

In Saturday’s game, BC will presumably heavily, if not double, cover Isabella, and if this succeeds in shutting him down, UMass needs a backup plan. That backup plan is named Marquis Young. Young is expected to be a hot commodity once the 2019 draft rolls around, given he has a good year this year. 

In 2017, Young played in all 12 games rushing 182 times for 982 yards, a career-high nine touchdowns and a career-long 95-yard run in a game against Appalachian State in October, a month that saw the Minutemen go undefeated.

Last week, Young ran the ball 15 times for 90 yards and a touchdown. He also caught two passes for 12 yards. 

Look for Young to tire out the BC defense and fool them when head coach Mark Whipple calls a play-action pass. 

The defense plays well all four quarters

Ever since moving up to FBS, the UMass defense has had trouble both playing all four quarters and playing them well. 

That was not the case against Duquesne. Granted, the Dukes are an FCS team, but in a game against Wagner that the Minutemen won, they were unable to blow them out the way they were able to last week: defeating the Dukes, 63-15. 

For the Minutemen, corners Lee Moses and Isaiah Rodgers are essential to breaking up the passing attack that BC is bound to use. Last year, Moses and Rodgers combined for seven interceptions for 147 yards and two touchdowns.

Look for Moses and Rodgers to thwart any areal attack and force the Eagles to rely heavily on their run game.

BC wins if . . . 

AJ Dillon doesn’t get tired/hurt

Coming into the 2018 season, everyone who watched ACC football knows that AJ Dillon is going to be a huge contributor to the BC offense this year, but knows that as a sophomore, the Eagles have to be careful not to overwork him.

He is expected to test the defense both running the ball and as a receiver.

Dillon ran the ball an even 300 times in 2017 for the Eagles for 1,622 yards and 14 touchdowns to lead the ACC.

Watch for Dillon to exploit the Minutemen’s defensive weaknesses as both a running back and receiver.

Anthony Brown lives up to the hype

At the end of the 2017 season, BC had a dilemma at quarterback. Senior quarterback Darius Wade had two choices: he could stay with BC and possibly back up now-redshirt sophomore Anthony Brown or he could transfer. Wade chose the latter when he decided to stay home and transfer to the University of Delaware. 

This cleared the for Brown to be the clear-cut starter in 2018.

In 2017, Brown did play and he completed 134-of-258 passes for 1,367 yards and 11 touchdowns. Brown also rushed 42 times for 210 yards and one touchdown.

Look for Brown to exploit UMass’ defense and attempt to hurt them either with his accurate arm or his ability to pick it up and scramble.

Sweeney picks up where he left off last season

It’s not often a tight end leads a team in receptions, yards and touchdowns, but that’s exactly what graduate Tommy Sweeney did in 2017.

Sweeney caught 36 passes for 512 yards and four touchdowns and was a force to be reckoned with every play. Behind him was Kobay White, but he caught 34 passes and was just under 100 yards less than Sweeney with 423.

The 6-foot-5 tight end is expected to be nightmare for Moses and or Rodgers to cover, watch for him to use his height to his advantage.

Review

UMass has the upper hand after already playing a game this season, whereas BC is stepping onto the field in front of a crowd for the first time. The Eagles, however, are 18-point favorites going into the game, but in college football that means next to nothing.

Only time will tell who will come out on top.

Prediction: UMass 31, BC 24